ohio's swing

EJ Dionne today rights about Ohio Democratic Governor Ted Strickland and Ohio Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, both elected in 2006. He also notes that, according to polls, 30% of Bush voters in 2004 voted for Strickland in 2006, and 20% for Brown.

Why? Some reasons include Iraq, scandals in Ohio (Coingate, Bob Ney), a tremendously unpopular Republican governor (Bob Taft).

But also remember that it is strictly conjecture to assume that Bush in fact won Ohio in 2004. Long lines in pro-Democratic precincts, mysterious terrorism threats that caused GOP election officials to lock themselves alone in buildings to count votes, glitches on voting machine that surprise, surprise, always worked in Bush's favor, a final result that was dramatically different than the exit polls that had ALWAYS been accurate before. Fact is, Bush almost certainly LOST Ohio in 2004. So the further swing to Democrats like Brown and Strickland was there in 2006 but at least some of it (5 percentage points, perhaps?) may reflect the fact that Karl Rove wasn't focused on stealing Ohio.