why are bush and rove not worried?

Republicans report that de facto President Bush and his turdblossom brain, Karl Rove, are much more confident about the upcoming Congressional elections that most GOP members. Rove predicts the Repugs will only lose 8-10 seats in the House and will retain their majority.

So why are they not worried, given the polling data, Foleygate, Woodward's book, the deteriorating situation in Iraq, etc? I see three possibilities.

1) Bush and Rove are stupid and don't see the train that'a about to hit them. I'd believe this about Bush maybe, but Rove is a lot of things but not stupid especially when it comes to electoral politics.

2) Bush and Rove are putting on the brave face to avoid depressing Republican turnout (I believe this is true, but not necessarily incompatible with #1 and #3.) Adding to that, Rove bases his relative optimism on the GOP's strong voter-turnout operation. That is at odds, however, with polls that show Democrats are more enthusiastic about this election that Republicans.

3) Bush and Rove aren't worried because they're little friends will make sure GOP losses are limited. Their friends? The good people at Diebold.

I'm sure even as we speak Diebold's President is prepared to deliver key patches to voting machines at the last minute, as he did in Georgia in 2004. Let's see whether a bunch of races where Democrats lead by five points, or eleven points, as the Democratic candidates for Senate and Governor in Georgia did in 2004, are unexpectedly defeated by a "late surge", a surge undetected in otherwise accurate exit polls.

I'm not paranoid. It is rational to be concerned about tactics that have been used before.