Monday, May 22, 2006

rock me like a hurricane?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its predictions for the 2006 hurricane season -- 13-16 named storms, of which 8-10 will be hurricanes, 4-6 of which will be major (Category 3 and above).

Last year NOAA predicted 12-15 named storms with 7-9 hurricanes and of course we ended up with 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes -- more than double the prediction.

So should we take comfort that this year's prediction is for fewer storms than we had last year -- or should we be worried that this year's prediction is for more storms than NOAA PREDICTED last year? The MSNBC piece refers to climatologists seeing indications that human induced climate change could be increasing the average intensity of tropical cyclones. Do the models adequately take that into account, I wonder?