vulnerable gop house majority

Political observers are increasingly convinced that the Democrats have a very good shot at gaining a majority in the House of Representatives this fall.

On the face of it, that makes sense. The GOP is saddled with an unpopular President. The Speaker of the House is an uninspiring cypher. Real House leader Tom DeLay had to resign under the increasing weight of his personal corruption. Congress has repeatedly failed to do even the basics, like passing budgets, and has fought a class war on behalf of the haves vs the have-nots with their tax cuts for the rich and benefit cuts for the rest.

But I will believe it when I see it. First, I imagine there will be more terror alerts and trumped-up arrests and plots, which may make some difference although the undeserved Republican lead on handling national security has been reduced by 3/4s over 2004.

And second is outright electoral fraud. Let's watch the exit polls in districts where the race is expected to be close. If all the exit polls in close races are wrong in exactly the same way -- that is, the official count gives the Republicans more votes than the exit polls -- then we'll know the fix is in. Again.